A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
