Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
